NIGERIA MIGHT BE DRIFTING TOWARDS A ONE-PARTY STATE: WHERE ARE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND WHY ARE MEMBERS OF THE FOURTH ESTATE SILENT?

 NIGERIA MIGHT BE DRIFTING TOWARDS A ONE-PARTY STATE: WHERE ARE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND WHY ARE MEMBERS OF THE FOURTH ESTATE SILENT?

By Daniel Okonkwo Profile International Human Rights Advocate

As the 2027 general elections approach, Nigeria’s political atmosphere is witnessing a rapid realignment of forces that raises fundamental questions about the future of multiparty democracy in the country. With increasing political defections, strategic alliances, and influential visits to the presidency, the possibility of Nigeria gravitating towards a de facto one-party system looms large. This development, if unchecked, may compromise democratic principles, political plurality, and national cohesion.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has, in recent months, forged new alliances and welcomed high-profile defections from other political parties—most notably from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In Akwa Ibom State, Governor Umo Eno announced his defection to the APC, citing inspiration from President Bola Tinubu’s leadership. This move was followed by the defection of 31 local government chairmen, several state lawmakers, and three commissioners who resigned in protest. Nine APC governors, led by Imo State Governor and Chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum, Hope Uzodimma, formally received Governor Eno and his supporters.

Similarly, Delta State witnessed a political earthquake as Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa, members of the State Executive Council, and the entire PDP leadership in the state defected to the APC. In a strategic display of strength, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar's 2023 running mate, Okowa, joined the wave—signaling the weakening resolve of the once-dominant PDP.

Other notable defections include Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State (November 2020), Ben Ayade of Cross River (May 2021), and Bello Matawalle of Zamfara (June 2021). The trend also mirrors the earlier realignment pre-2015, when the likes of Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), and Ahmed Abdulfatah (Kwara) crossed over to the APC, setting the stage for the party’s historic 2015 victory.

As of mid-2025, APC controls 23 states, PDP 10, and one state each is governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). This dominance has brought discomfort to the opposition, who now face an uphill battle to remain relevant.

Adding to the political intrigue, Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, alongside billionaire businessman Adedeji Adeleke and music star Davido, paid a courtesy visit to President Tinubu in Lagos. Though described as a non-political, familial visit, the perception suggest a softening stance or warming relations between certain PDP figures and the APC-led presidency. This visit was widely publicized by the President’s Special Assistant on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, drawing both political and public scrutiny.

The proliferation of defections and consolidation of political power by the ruling APC raises a critical concern—are we drifting toward a one-party state? Historically, one-party systems are prevalent in countries like North Korea, China, Vietnam, Cuba, and Laos. Such systems are often characterized by the suppression of opposition, centralized governance, and control over the judiciary, legislature, and media.

In a one-party system, opposition parties are either outlawed or allowed limited, controlled participation in governance. Political freedom, dissent, and democratic competition are curtailed, often replaced by authoritarian tendencies. The ruling party becomes the sole voice in public discourse, marginalizing minority interests, civil society, NGOs, and pressure groups. Without checks and balances, such political dominance can promote corruption, abuse of power, draconian laws, and human rights violations.

Nigeria’s current trajectory bears worrying similarities. If the trend of mass defections and party absorption continues, the country could find itself in a pseudo-democratic state where elections become mere formalities. The electorate would be left with little or no viable alternative, reducing the power of the vote and undermining democratic accountability.

The Nigerian Constitution does not explicitly prohibit party defections, thereby allowing elected officials to switch affiliations with impunity. While this is constitutionally permissible under certain interpretations, it erodes political ideology and weakens the social contract between elected representatives and their constituents.

The motivations behind such defections are often rooted in personal ambition, internal party crises, lack of internal democracy, and absence of a clearly defined political ideology as they claim. This political fluidity makes it difficult for voters to trust in consistent policy direction or hold leaders accountable for campaign promises.

Centralized political control often leads to centralized economic control. Already, there are concerns about monopolization of contracts by a few powerful individuals within the ruling party. Such practices stifle competition, discourage private enterprise, and concentrate wealth in the hands of a few, aggravate inequality. Furthermore, a weakened press, targeted censorship, and retaliation against whistleblowers and activists have strengthened a climate of fear and impunity.

When governance is insulated from public scrutiny, corruption festers, creativity is suppressed, and national development is hindered. In countries with one-party rule, critics have pointed to the lack of innovation, stunted economic growth, and systemic oppression as direct outcomes of unchecked political monopolies.

As a member of the fourth estate, I am duty-bound to report and analyze these developments objectively. The trend toward a one-party state in Nigeria is not only troubling but potentially dangerous for the country’s democratic future. It is a shift that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

Yet, despite the bleak outlook, there is hope. The electorate must realize the power of their vote and demand accountability from political leaders. Democratic participation, civil engagement, and a robust press are essential in resisting the drift towards dictatorship.

The political realignment we are witnessing may very well be an avalanche in the making—but it is not irreversible. Through informed choices, civic vigilance, and democratic activism, Nigerians can reclaim the political space and ensure that governance remains

NIGERIA MIGHT BE DRIFTING TOWARDS A ONE-PARTY STATE: WHERE ARE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND WHY ARE MEMBERS OF THE FOURTH ESTATE SILENT?

by the people and for the people.